The BBL is coming to the pointy end of the competition and finals spots are still on the line with only four games remaining in the regular season.
Both the Scorchers and Sixers have locked in first and second place respectively and will face off in The Qualifier final on January 28.
That leaves three spots up for grabs, and five teams could feature in the post-season with only the Stars out of the finals race.
Here’s every team’s chances of making the BBL finals!
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REMAINING GAMES
Hobart Hurricanes vs Sydney Sixers — January 23
Melbourne Renegades vs Adelaide Strikers — January 24
Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat — January 25
Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder — January 25
BRISBANE HEAT — 1 GAME LEFT vs Hobart Hurricanes
Best finish: 3rd
Worst finish: 6th
The Heat have been one of the success stories of this season and have currently won four games in a row.
The Brisbane side’s rained out clash against the Sixers saw them score an extra point — which gives them a huge advantage in edging out their opposition into third spot.
Usman Khawaja’s team only have one more game to go against the Hurricanes in Launceston, and if they can continue their winning ways, slot into third place and play in the Knockout Final.
Michael Neser’s experience will be key to the Heat scoring a win, and the two-game Test player has taken an impressive 18 wickets at an average of 19.56.
If the Heat lose, Brisbane will be hoping the Sixers get the job done against the Hurricanes, the Strikers beat the Renegades and Stars best the Thunder which will also see them finish on 13 points and in third place ahead of four teams who could finish on 12 points.
However, if the Hurricanes beat both the Heat and Sixers and the Renegades and Thunder both take points — the Heat can finish as low as 6th place.
RENEGADES — 1 GAME LEFT vs Adelaide Strikers
Best finish: 3rd
Worst finish: 6th
The Renegades have been the most improved team of BBL12 after languishing in eighth place in BBL11.
However, their efforts could be worth nothing if they don’t score a victory against the Strikers — which could see them finish as high as third place.
Experienced batsmen Aaron Finch and seamer Tom Rogers have both been crucial figures for David Saker’s side.
Finch has belted 355 runs at 35.5, while Rogers has taken 20 wickets to sit in third place in the overall leaderboard.
If those two can fire to beat the Strikers, the Stars best the Thunder and Hobart take points against only the Heat, the Renegades can finish in third.
Should Hobart win both of their remaining games and the Thunder score a win over the Stars, the Renegades will slot into sixth place and miss out on the finals.
Interestingly, should the Hurricanes beat only the Heat and the Renegades lose, four teams will finish on 12 points — the Thunder, Renegades, Strikers and Hurricanes.
THUNDER – 1 GAME LEFT vs Melbourne Stars
Best finish: 3rd
Worst finish: 6th
The Thunder have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the BBL this season and their woes were compounded by a disastrous loss to the Strikers which saw them dismissed for a staggering 15 runs.
While Sydney have bounced back, Trevor Bayliss’ team have had enough chances to secure their position in the top three — but now face a nervous wait.
If the Thunder beat the Stars in their only remaining contest, they secure a place in the finals ranging from third place to fifth place depending on other results.
If Adelaide can beat the Renegades and the Hurricanes beat the Sixers and lose to the Heat — the Thunder can finish in third place.
Key to that finish will be young gun Ollie Davies, who has stamped his mark on the competition in BBL12 with an impressive 325 runs at an average of 29.55.
Meanwhile Test gun David Warner has struggled with only 61 runs in four games — but a big performance in his side’s final game could be crucial.
However, if they lose the Thunder can almost say goodbye to their finals chances with a NRR of 0.813, 0.283 worse than the Heat on 0.530.
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STRIKERS – 1 GAME LEFT vs Melbourne Renegades
Best finish: 4th
Worst finish: 7th
The Strikers batting has fired in BBL12, with two of the top three run scorers wearing royal blue — but that hasn’t translated into ladder success and a loss in their final game will see them drop out of the finals race.
Matt Short and Chris Lynn will have to pile on the runs to best the Renegades’ stacked batting line-up.
Short leads the competition with a staggering 458 runs, while Lynn has returned to his brilliant best with 416 to sit in third.
While the Strikers need to win, their finals chances now depend on other results.
If the Strikers win, the Thunder lose to the Stars and the Hurricanes win only one of their remaining two games, Adelaide will likely slot into fourth place with a strong NRR of 0.108.
However, if the Thunder win, and the Hurricanes win both of their clashes — Adelaide finish in sixth even after beating the Renegades, who they will likely overtake due to NRR.
HURRICANES – 2 GAMES LEFT vs the Sydney Sixers and Brisbane Heat
Best finish: 3rd
Worst finish: 7th
Hobart are the only team left with two games to play — and come up against a pair of red-hot opponents.
Hobart have made the finals in four out of the last five seasons, but this year haven’t lived up to their billing with a number of superstars including Nathan Ellis and D’arcy Short.
The Hurricanes will face both the Sixers and Heat and with a pair of wins, and both the Renegades and Thunder losing, could finish as high as third place.
If both the Renegades and Thunder win, and Hobart beat only the Sixers they will miss out of the finals by a singular point.
Worst case scenario for Matthew Wade’s team sees the men in purple finish way down in 7th place, should the Strikers beat the Renegades to finish on 12 points.
However, Hobart won’t be thinking about anything else but winning two games and their star-studded bowling attack will be the deciding factor.
Speedster Riley Meredith has been one of the BBL’s best bowlers this season with 19 wickets, while a cult-hero has emerged in Paddy Dooley.
The left-armer, with an interesting action, has been one of the surprise packages of the season and has consistently bamboozled his opponents, taking 16 wickets.
The Hurricanes NRR of 0.300 could be a problem should they be stranded on 12 points, in a battle with the Strikers and Renegades if Adelaide win.
CURRENT LADDER
Scorchers — 22 points
Sixers — 19 points
Heat — 13 points
Renegades — 12 points
Thunder — 12 points
Strikers — 10 points
Hurricanes — 10 points
Stars — 6 points
BBL|12 FINAL SCHEDULE
Friday January 27: The Eliminator — 4th v 5th
Saturday January 28: The Qualifier — 1st v 2nd
Sunday January 29: The Knockout — 3rd v winner of The Eliminator
Thursday February 2: The Challenger — loser of The Qualifier v winner of The Knockout
Saturday February 4: The Final — winner of The Qualifier v winner of The Challenger
